Smoothie Sailing From Here
It is a Wednesday morning after a snowy night leaving almost 4 inches of snow across the suburbs of Philadelphia. I am unfortunately spending my morning having my car inspected after a complete turn of events leaving me with a hefty $200 ticket from an unreasonable, yet polite police officer.
The downtime I have spent watching reruns of 80s comedy tv has left my mind wondering about the current status of the GLP-1 world. There used to be these insane standards for actors on tv to remain slim and physically attractive. While these standards still follow through to today’s roles, I fear that new consumption trends that I have been bookmarking will promote an unprecedented change going further into 2025.
In a post from a few months back, I painted the picture of a two of my friends who have volunteered to test new GLP-1 drugs that have hit the market. Since then, one of them has lost a substantial amount of weight, and the other has paused their treatment in fear of the pricing leaving their affordability bracket.
When weight loss drugs became more accessible than ever in 2024, analysts left and right swore that people would stick to their unhealthy habits. Some even anticipated a growth in snacking stocks like Mondelez and Hershey. I, however, saw first hand that people within my friend group (as well as outside) were instead opting for healthier eating options that would aid in the overall weight loss process.
GLP-1 drugs work by suppressing one's appetite. Common side effects include nausea. In order to subside that constant feeling of wanting to throw everything up, users are altering their diets to more fulfilling options that don't trigger gastrointestinal reactions. After reviewing information that I have collected over several weeks, many users are choosing smaller meals from healthier brands. Familiar brands that they have been less excited about before come to the forefront like salad franchises and Mediterranean chains like Cava or Garbanzo.
So when I see headlines about McDonalds experiencing less growth in same-store sales and then every single OJ brand under the sun pivoting to incorporate smoothie varieties to their lineup of products, I am not at all surprised. Smoothies are a great way for beverage brands to market a product as “healthy” or a “better option” although the combined sugar in a 8oz smoothie bottle is about triple the amount of sugar in an 16oz box of organic orange juice. Buyers unfamiliar with the manipulation fall victim to that ‘trap’ of unhealthy eating decisions that drive repeat business back into beverage companies.
Although the McDonalds issue is a bit unrelated, it is still relevant. We’ll touch on it briefly. McDonalds took a huge loss recently with an E Coli outbreak that hit news outlets and social media faster than a deer hitting your car on the backroads of a suburban town at 6am on a Tuesday morning. Naturally, fear impacted the buyers of the popular fast food chain. Since then, the company has switched their supplier away from the culprit spreading E Coli, and now they are working on a comeback that their leadership says will increase growth going into Q2.
I hate to become one of those girlies who turns everything into a LinkedIn post. You know, those people who use idiotic events in their lives to curate some sort of nonsensical symbolism.. (ex: Today my dad was induced into a coma, this is what my experience in the hospital has taught me about investing in bitcoin). Anyway, this all reminds me of a conversation that I had last week at my house. A friend and I were conversing and I questioned the validity of Dry January, as well as its effectiveness. He then filled me in on his own experience of quitting smoking. You take away this addictive item long enough, the people around you introduce this concept of making healthier decisions, you then either forget about the addictive item, or you return at full force to make up for all of the time lost without it.
This then made me question: If McDonald’s return is not timed well, as they were already having a pricing issue with their menu, and they are removed from the mind of their consumer for long enough, could this contribute to the growth of GLP-1 drugs in the future?
I could be pushing it here. I probably am.
Fast food is known for its convenience. And with the average hours of work by human capital increasing every year, there is less time to carve out for a home cooked meal. People could just go right back to their familiar behaviors that fuel the growth of McDonalds. Or! Maybe cava can time the assembly of a harissa chicken bowl in the way that chipotle does and that could be our new version of ‘fast food’.
I guess we’ll wait and see.
Until then, stay warm.
Preheat and lock your car prior to driving.
And PLEASE go get your car inspected.
Frank.
