Feeling Tax-y?
It is Black Friday/Cyber Monday season and I think that this is the first time that I have participated in almost three years. There were actually some good deals on items that align with some of my personal goals going into 2025. Nordstrom Rack had an extra 40% off of clearance, and baby there was A LOT of good clearance. I really wanted some good active picks for the gym, and maybe some shoes. Right before Thanksgiving, I went to Reclectic in Philly and got some super unique and funky long sleeves for winter date nights. Everything was under $100. I was sure not to get carried away because at the end of the day, I am still very much a broke college student.
I promised to update my blog today. I am guilty of having a food blog and not actually sharing relevant recipes during one of the biggest cooking seasons of the year. Shoot me!
Anyway, today’s post will be about some finance thoughts that have been brewing in my mind. Trump is returning to office (obvi). During the week following the election, the stock market rallied. I was sure to cash in and jump out at strategic times because I knew that the pop was temporary. Now going forward, we all know that Trump is emotional. On Saturday, he lashed out at the BRICS group of emerging market countries and threatened to impose 100% tariffs if they tried to "move away" from the US dollar. This coming after his comments to introduce tariffs on anything coming from China, Canada, and China.
Does anyone else feel like all of this is unreal?
Everything down to the election, I still have not processed any of it.
If you look at 10 items in your home right now and briefly read the label, the majority of what you have was made in another country. Recent data shows that the US is branching out to different areas for manufacturing recently, but nevertheless, everyday consumers have a great amount of their products made in China. If Trump is successful, we might see one of the most expensive periods in our country in years. Especially with us coming up off an aggressive interest rate period, this feels quite dangerous. Yes, I am making this sound dramatic. The dramatic tone is intentional because the tariff issue is not the only controversial thing Trump intends to implement when he is in office. Panicing is a very natural and normal emotion that arises continuously whenever Trump is docuemented by the press. Try to remember that a lot of what he says probably will never come to fruition. Be cautious. Make educated decisions AFTER something is solidified.
Of course the news is not making things better. News network are notorious for adding a little flame to the fire. It is literally how they get eyes on their content and make money. Fear mongering is not new. But this consumer fear is where I think I can win going into the beginning of 2025. When 24Q4 results for retail are released, I will absolutely switch things up.
I know that consumer spending is a little iffy right now with inflation. Shoppers are picky when it comes to picking from grocery shelves, but they are NOT holding back on larger home purchases like TVs and lighting and productivity devices. Based on what I have gathered over the past few weeks, this Black Friday season will bring in some good numbers!
News networks and social media are collectively working to initiate fear in customers right now. ABC news is quite literally telling people to stock up on the following because they will be more expensive with the anticipated tariffs:
Major household appliances
Laptops and tablets
Smartphones
Electric bikes.
So who do you think is benefitting from this right now? The big box babies. This is like the toilet paper thing all over again from the beginning of covid. People are panic buying and then flaunting their preparedness for social media. All of this coverage combined with the fact that Walmart is dominating the game right now with higher income customers (people making $100k+ a year). EVERYONE is looking for a good deal on household essentials and apparel right now. People with the money to stock up on that list above will be doing so. Here are stocks Im looking at (and will probably pull out of within the next 60 days):
Walmart (obvi, I would never sell my baby)
Apple
Best Buy
Roku
UPS
John Deere
UPS serves a bit of a different purpose on my buy list right now. USPS is currently not delivering packages to Canada because of a strike. UPS is the next best bet for affordable international shipping, especially now that they have cut rates to accommodate smaller businesses in 2024 in the US. Let’s hope holiday season is good to them.
I hope y'all get something cute for Cyber Monday!
Frank.
